Natural gas flaring emissions in the Permian Basin will decline to historically low levels by the end the year, predicts Rystad Energy, a Norwegian energy research and business intelligence company.
The area of West Texas that is known to be a major player in the oil and gas sector has been in the midst of a downturn exacerbated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the price wars.
Natural Gas Intelligence’s Shale Daily reported that the Permian Basin noticed the signs of an activity slowdown – shut-in wells and reduced activity – three months ago.
Rystad predicted the carbon dioxide equivalent emission intensity associated with wellhead flaring to average around five kilograms of CO2/boe produced in the second half of 2020.
The figure is in stark contrast to the fourth quarter of 2018 when the peak level of CO2 emission intensity at approximately 12 kilograms of CO2/boe. Wellhead flaring emission intensity was at an estimated eight kilograms of CO2/boe in March.
Flaring-driven emission intensity could slide to barely below four kilograms of CO2/boe by midway through the fourth quarter of this year.
“In 2Q 2020 a material part of Permian oil production is being curtailed, resulting in an abnormal oil production decline that is supporting emission intensity at a level of 7-8 kg CO2/boe, despite continuous deceleration in flaring,” Artem Abramov, Rystad’s head of shale research, told Natural Gas Intelligence’s Shale Daily. “However, assuming that most volumes are brought back in the second half of 2020, we anticipate a significant downward shift in flaring-driven emission intensity.”
Earlier this year, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. CEO Scott Sheffield urged exploration and production operators to decrease gas flaring rates under 2%.
Rystad believes that there will be a few new production additions in the last half of the year, surmising wellhead flaring going forward could be dwarfed by the levels seen last November.